The Ohio Recount story meandered it's way into the main stream press last night. On NBC's Nightly News, they had a segment on the phenomenon of Internet Bloggers and what they get right and what they get wrong. It was rather intriguing.
According to NBC, one of the pieces of logic behind the claims of foul play is the fact that Bush easily won in some counties of Florida that have significantly more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. This was supposed to be "evidence" of the election being hijacked. Yet, these same counties have traditionally voted Republican in presidential elections.
I find the specter of web blog journalism to be as frightening as the specter of corporate journalistic manipulation, largely because there is little or nor fact checking. When the web bloggers get it right, they can have far reaching and immediate effects. When they get it wrong, their credibility is weakened and maybe not so many will listen the next time the get it right. Many bloggers worked hard at fact checking the debates. But who fact checks the bloggers?
Some more comments on polling:
Some organizations are better than others. Read these
comments in the Boston Globe about various polling organizations.
Zogby gets is right, Fox News is off.
One should question whether or not the polls have a direct effect on voter turnout. Do more people vote if they are afraid that their candidate might lose in a close election? Do fewer turn out if they think their candidate is a shoo in? If this has effects for polling before the election, how about early dissemination of exit poll data on election day?
Before reading the commentary below, I ask that you look at the "final" numbers for polling in Ohio as reported by Zogby.
These tables show the final pre-election polling numbers from Zogby International and the final (end of the day) exit polling numbers for Ohio. Note, these "final" exit poll numbers in Ohio indicate a probable Bush win (+5 among men, even among women), not a Kerry victory as many have said. You could even say the the exit poll number are internally inconsistent if you look at the split on the basis of party:
9 percent of Democrats said that they voted for Bush.
6 percent of Republicans said that they voted for Kerry.
The margin among "Independent" voters was +19% for Kerry.
This would generally indicate a Kerry victory. The gender numbers would indicate a Bush victory. Both can not be correct.
The CNN election exit poll numbers are the same, plus CNN gives the weighting by % of voters.
A lot of people give a higher credibility score to Zogby than other polling organizations. This Michigan New take on this election's exit polls was published on the Zogby site.
Note: this article provides a view of the election poll results that is biased to the right. If there is a conspiracy, then this columnist viewed it as a conspiracy from the left, i.e., the Kerry campaign and it's media supporters.
For what it is worth, I believe that there is some validity in this type of conspiracy theory. I remember back in the California Gladiatorial recall election that Art Torres, Chairman of the California Democratic Party was releasing "tracking poll" numbers showing that Davis would keep his position while the Field Poll and everyone else knew that Davis was out. This tactic is not unknown in Democratic Party Circles. Peter Camejo soundly, publicly condemned the practice at the time.
Political organizations know how to use the media, and I mean all of the media including "bloggers", "netizens" and "corporate controlled mainstream media", in order to control perceptions of their candidate, the candidate's strengths/weaknesses and probability of winning. Every leak of any information is to be considered suspect until fact checked and verified. The use of internet spreads spurious facts as fast as it spreads real ones, sometimes faster if it fits with a preconceived expectation of skullduggery.
Green Party Presidential candidate, David Cobb and Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarick have aske for a recount in Ohio. According to a Green Party press release:
" Due to widespread reports of irregularities in the Ohio voting
process, we are compelled to demand a recount of the Ohio presidential
vote. Voting is the heart of the democratic process in which we as a
nation put our faith. When people stand in line for hours to exercise
their right to vote, they need to know that all votes will be counted
fairly and accurately. We must protect the rights of the people of
Ohio, as well as all Americans, and stand up for the right to vote and
the right for peoples votes to be counted. The integrity of the
democratic process is at stake."
If the goal here is to provide the American People with "the truth" then I applaud these efforts. There were indeed many reports of irregularities in Ohio. Some of them were actually factual. The most outstanding was of a single voter machine that malfunctioned and credited Kerry Votes to Bush. That malfunction was corrected and there was enough protection in the system that (1) the problem was identified and (2) the votes credited to the right candidate.
We do, in fact, deserve to know the truth. The truth might be that the Bush margin was even greater than the first count showed. If that is the truth, are you ready to accept it?
Posted by Wes at November 13, 2004 11:17 AM