There are several patterns that emerged from the Iowa Caucus and were confirmed by the New Hampshire Primary.
-- The role of anger in the Democratic Party has been underestimated by most of TV's Talking Heads, from Chris Matthews to whatever Conservative mouthpiece that shows up on Fox. This is manifest in 2 ways. First, the issue in the Democratic primaries is "electability" and not policy. They even forgive Dean his scream, may agree with his policies, but vote for Kerry. The second is the fact that Dems and "decline to states" are turning out in record numbers. Both the Iowa Caucus and NH Primary had record numbers of participants. This latter fact should give the Republicans a lot of sleepless nights. Bush has proved to be as polarizing a figure for the Democrats as Clinton was for the Republicans.
-- Young people are becoming more active in the process than in recent years. Both Iowa and NH had major increases in participation by the young. This is not just the usual local college clubs turning out for one candidate or another. Young people are hitting the road to support their candidate in other states in numbers not seen in a generation. Dean even acknowledged the number of supporters from San Francisco in his after-the-tabulation speech last night. The young are also going to the polls or caucuses and voting like they have not done in years.
Overwhelmingly, those of an activist bent supported Dean, but the rest voted for Kerry. If this pattern holds, the Democratic Party may well have captured a generation of voters for main stream Democratic candidates. The future of the Green Party requires that we also have a candidate who can generate the same enthusiasm that Matt Gonzales tapped into in San Francisco.
-- It seems obvious that Kucinich has no chance to garner more than a token vote in any state. His continued candidacy seems to be only about not allowing the Democratic Party to move toward the center, which is what many believe makes Kerry "electable." It may well be that the major effect of his candidacy will be to have pulled Green supporters back into the Democratic Party.
As one media guru said last night, Kucinich and Lieberman are dead. They just have not admitted it yet.
Posted by at January 28, 2004 07:40 PM